Planting a Tree
Have you ever tried planting a tree?
I planted a tree in our back yard as part of an elementary school project. I took great care in the first year to make sure it had appropriate water and soil, and that the other trees around it were trimmed so it had enough light.
Truth be told, I could barely tell it had grown in that first year.
But as time marched on, the tree’s roots deepened, the branches spread, and the shape of the tree became clear.
Fast forward a decade or so to when my parents sold our childhood home and that tree was as tall as the house.
Similarly, changes in higher education take time to ripple through the system.
Cuts today will continue to create downward trends for 2-3 years in a college, and 4-6 years in a university where longer programs are more common.
We saw this lately: Conestoga College in Ontario announced a $121m surplusi. it looked - at first glance - like a success story. But look closer, and you’ll see the real lesson. That surplus still came alongside a $450 million drop in revenue tied to 20,000 fewer international students. Next year, Conestoga projects a deficit.
In times like these, having a quality enrolment plan that adapts to changing circumstances is ideal. My understanding is Conestoga has sophisticated what-if scenario planning, but many institutions do not. Further, a policy change this stark is rarely considered in scenario planning, as it is a bit closer to a black swan event. Black swan events come as a surprise, have a major effect, and are often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight (Taleb, 2010ii). You can see this in Canada as people rush to say the housing market is correcting thanks to the changes to international education while conveniently ignoring the impact of tariffs, changes to other categories of immigration, and rules that were designed to reduce non-resident ownership.
You may have read our recent series on enrolment targets and know that some institutions struggle with scenario planning.
Where Institutions Get Stuck
1. Relying on “last year + a bit.”
Too often, targets are set by taking last year’s number and nudging it up or down. Most years, this works—until something big changes. Policy shocks, like Canada’s international student cap, expose just how brittle this method is. Old assumptions stop working overnight.
2. Lack of scenario planning.
Many colleges and universities still run only one forecast. That leaves no roadmap for what happens if applications decline faster than expected, or if one program grows while another shrinks. Without scenarios, leaders can’t anticipate the downstream impacts—or prepare for them.
3. Disconnects between central planning and faculties.
Targets may be set centrally, but their reality is lived out in classrooms and programs. If those setting the targets don’t collaborate with those delivering the teaching, critical details get missed. A target may look achievable on paper, but instructor availability or lab capacity could make it impossible in practice.
4. Reconciling data instead of making decisions.
Institutional analysts - the people best equipped to run scenarios and spot risks - often spend their time just trying to get spreadsheets to agree. When half your time is spent reconciling data, there’s little left for the real work of advising leaders on what to do next.
The National Picture
This is not just about one institution. Every college in Ontario came in under the quota allocated by the federal government. Across Canada, the country is 100,000 students below its international enrolment target.
In 2024, 42% of international student spaces allocated to institutions went unfillediii. This speaks to the damage done to the “Destination Canada” brand in education.
The cuts were needed—Canada’s housing and labour markets are under strain—but the way they were implemented was hasty and blunt. Other countries, like Australia and the UK, have made changes to their international student policies too, but usually with longer notice periods and more predictable rules. The result is that institutions have time to adjust targets, plan scenarios, and align resources. In Canada, the suddenness of the policy shift has left institutions reacting rather than planning.
Building Resilience: What Could Be Done Differently
The lesson from Conestoga and the national picture is not that enrolment planning is impossible—it’s that we need better tools and processes to make it work.
- Scenario-based planning. Institutions should be running multiple futures, not single forecasts. What happens if international enrolment drops another 10%? What if it rebounds faster than expected? Planning for both allows for nimble action.
- Predictive modelling and AI. Tools can help anticipate shifts in demand by program, test the financial impacts of high/low/mid enrolment levels, and flag pressure points—whether that’s housing, course sections, or clinical placements.
- Better data systems. Stronger data governance and reconciliation processes ensure leaders can spend less time questioning the numbers and more time deciding what to do about them.
The point is not just to survive shocks, but to become more adaptable.
Looking Forward: Positive Opportunities
While painful, disruptions can also be a catalyst for better systems. Institutions that strengthen their planning processes now will be better positioned for long-term sustainability.
Opportunities include:
- Rebalancing the domestic/international mix of students in a more deliberate way.
- Investing in programs aligned with labour market demand, such as health care, skilled trades, and emerging technologies.
- Using advanced tools to set smarter, more realistic enrolment targets that balance ambition with achievability.
Canadian higher education will be living with the consequences of today’s policy decisions for years. But the sector has a choice: treat this as a crisis to endure, or as a moment to rethink how we plan for the future.
Closing: Invitation to Engage
Conestoga’s projected deficit is a reminder of the lag between enrolment changes and financial impacts. But it’s also a call to action. Better forecasting, stronger data systems, and more collaborative planning can help institutions turn shocks into strategies.
I’d love to hear your perspective:
- How is your institution preparing for enrolment changes that will fully materialize in 2–3 years?
- Are you running multiple enrolment scenarios, or just one?
- What tools or processes would make your planning more resilient?
Have an opinion or feedback on this post?
Sources:
i Piercey, J. (2025 August): Conestoga College reports $121M surplus this year, forecasts budget deficit in 2025/26. CityNews. https://apple.news/AxBd5vM6QTb6TXYMMEgtbkg
ii Tabel, N. (2010). The Black Swan. Penguin Books
iii Callan, I. & D’Mello, C. (2025, January). International student allocations drop again as Ontario colleges struggle. Global News. https://globalnews.ca/news/10974302/ontario-college-student-allocation-2025/