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International Student Targets in Canada are Changing (again....)

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International Student Targets in Canada are Changing (again....)

The 2025 Canadian federal budget brings new clarity - and new uncertainty - for Canadian postsecondary institutions navigating the ongoing recalibration of international enrolment.

There's some positives for higher education and some challenges. For a great roundup, check out the Budget Commentary by our colleagues at Higher Education Strategy Associates.

Narrative Matters

This budget makes intentional planning even more crucial. Change is in the air once again for international student enrolment, and there are a wide variety of takes on what the changes actually mean. For example:

  • The Vancouver Sun says "Students will likely see larger class sizes, more sessional lectures, and less class availability"
  • The PIE News says "master’s and PhD students enrolling at public institutions will be exempt from the provincial attestation letter (PAL) requirement and will not be included in federal cap allocations from next year"
  • University Affairs says "The plan announced in the budget reduces the number of allocations for new international study permits from the 2025 target of 305,900 to 155,000 in 2026 and 150,000 in each of 2027 and 2028."
In my view, one of our biggest risks is in how we tell this story. Seeing headlines like this "Canada cuts foreign enrolment cap by nearly 50%" scream to students that we don't want them.

If we keep confusing people with what the target is, what has happened to date, and what we're planning on in the future, they will get the wrong message and will choose another country that they perceive is more welcoming. If we said "Canada plans to grow international enrolment slightly" or "Canada expects to welcome about the same number of international students in the year ahead" that doesn't sound nearly so bad.

Modelling the Scenarios

Stats from earlier this summer suggested that Canada was 60% below its study permit target of 437,000, which suggests that there would be about 175,000 study permits issued. Conversely, if you take the 305,900 figure as the target, this suggests 122,360 permits.

However, IRCC's own data for new international students in Canada suggest that we've had 89,430 up to and including August 2025. In 2024 through August there were 221,940, and for the full year there were 293,220.

So of course we made some scenarios:

  • Scenario A: If 2024 Sept - Dec repeats itself
  • Scenario B: The 60% decline experienced so far in 2025 holds true for the remaining four months
  • Scenario C: The average monthly decline for the months from Dec 2024 to Aug Aug 2025 where a previous year is available (64% drop)

Our results suggest:

  • Scenario A: 160,710
  • Scenario B: 117,775
  • Scenario C: 111,026

(A side note: it’s puzzling that IRCC hasn’t released any newer numbers beyond August - even now, in November).

Looking Ahead

The new targets in Budget 2025 are 155,000 (2026), 150,000 (2027), and 150,000 (2028). Taken together with the graduate-level exemption, this analysis suggests it is conceivable that some institutions will be able to grow international a bit in the year ahead, as first noted by Alex Usher.

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The data nerd in me can't help but scream. If you’ve tried to make sense of Canada’s international enrolment targets this year, you’re not alone - even government releases and national media get them mixed up. Stay tuned next week for a deeper dive (click the Subscribe link above)

That’s exactly the kind of uncertainty Plaid Forecast was built to handle - turning policy shifts into clear, scenario-based insights.

Amid shifting targets and mixed messages, institutions need to plan for multiple enrolment futures - not just one. That’s where intentional scenario modeling matters most.

We'd love to help you be able to respond quickly to changes like this. Respond to this message or contact andrew@plaid.is if you'd like to chat.